BY ROB COX

For many on Wall Street, the pandemic delivered a rare taste of life off the trading floor. Once desk-bound buyers and sellers had a bumper year, with their fixed-income, currencies, commodities and equities trading machines powering bank bottom lines. Many also had quality-of-life epiphanies working from home or vacation abodes, not commuting, and seeing their families.

That’s why some bank bosses are girding for a mini exodus when bonuses are paid. It’s a time-honored tradition for traders or investment bankers to move around Wall Street or the City of London when merit compensation arrives. But 2021’s game of musical chairs may play to a different tune. Instead of bolting for competitors, look for many financiers deciding to spend more time with their families, or to surf, climb mountains, or whatever.

It has been a good pandemic for finance. Trading revenue grew by nearly a quarter at Morgan Stanley in the first nine months of 2020. What Goldman Sachs calls market making surged by 63% to $12.8 billion, accounting for 43% of non-interest revenue. Barclays’ corporate and investment bank saw a 64% spike in income from fixed income trading, powering a 24% boom at the division Chief Executive Jes Staley has defended against skeptical shareholders.

Consequently, expectations for juicier bonuses are high. Using the accrued compensation and benefits for the nine months through September 2020 at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, bonuses could be 16% and 13% higher, respectively. Similar figures at Barclays and UBS suggest bumps of 5% and 12%. Even if the final numbers are lower after the fourth quarter, the statement of intent is positive.

Not all that money will flow to traders, naturally. Trading businesses got lucky as central banks pumped liquidity into markets, and governments did the same with fiscal stimulus, much of it financed by borrowing the banks underwrote. It could be argued that windfall profits should be distributed more widely.

But bonus disappointment could just reinforce a growing feeling that the daily grind is a distant nightmare, not a prescription for future happiness. Whether it’s life in the slower lane, the daily walk with the dog or coaching the kids’ soccer team, 2021 will be a good year to take the money and run.

First published December 2020